you can do what you want to whenever you want to
you can do what you want to there's no one to stop you
all spit and spite you're up all night and down every day
a tired man with only hours to go just waiting to be taken away

do what you want to whenever you want to
do what you want to whenever you want to
though it doesn't mean a thing
big nothing

ballad of big nothingElliott Smith

When the results are in from today's decisive Pennsylvania primary, one thing is for certain: it will not be decisive. The landscape of the Democratic nomination process will be largely unchanged. Sen. Clinton will win by about 8%. This margin will not be enough to swing the momentum in her favor. It is not small enough that she will exit the race. To change the momentum, Sen. Clinton needed to win by the margin she was ahead in the polls four weeks ago: 20%. For Sen. Clinton to leave the race, Sen. Obama would have to win. Both of these outcomes are so unlikely they barely warrant mention.

What is certain is that both of the coalitions these Senators have built are quite stable. This stability likely has less to do with each day's events and gaffes and more with the fact that our politics continue to become increasingly polarized. As recent research suggests, the more partisan you are, the less you use reason when processing political information. Therefore, Obama supporters see Sen. Clinton's Bosnia remarks as unforgivable. Similarly, Clinton supporters see Sen. Obama's bitter remarks as validation of their low opinion of him. I guess we are progressing (regressing?) in some way: irrational arguments are no longer solely across party lines.

Update: Sen. Clinton won by 9.3%.